Demian Sahputra
BERLIN — Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have once again triggered serious warnings from Germany regarding the potential for sustained global oil price surges. Anton Hofreiter, a senior politician from the German Green Party, explicitly stated that the world must prepare for “permanently high oil prices” following the latest escalation in the Middle East. This warning is supported by similar analyses from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Green Party, who see no signs of rapid de-escalation in a conflict threatening regional stability and the global economy in 2026.
Hofreiter, known for his critical stance on foreign policies that could trigger instability, emphasized that the world's response to dynamics in the Persian Gulf must be strategic and long-term. “We can no longer expect prices to return to pre-conflict levels,” Hofreiter stated to German media. “The situation in the Middle East has fundamentally changed.”
Similar views were echoed by politicians from the CDU. They underscored the widespread destabilizing effects, not only on energy prices but also on global supply chains and inflation. A CDU spokesperson for foreign affairs stated that “the US-Iran conflict has now entered a more complex phase, requiring careful diplomacy but also readiness for worst-case scenarios.”
A sustained surge in oil prices would exert significant pressure on the economies of oil-importing countries, including Germany. Consumers would feel the impact through rising fuel prices, more expensive transportation costs, and potential inflation eroding purchasing power.
Middle East stability is key. Any escalation, whether military or economic, could trigger an unpredictable chain reaction. This region, one of the world's largest oil producers, plays a crucial role in maintaining the balance of the global energy market.
Tensions between the US and Iran are not new. The history of this conflict is marked by a series of events, including attacks on military bases and economic sanctions. Recall how America attacked Iran, and the Mullah regime retaliated against Gulf bases some time ago. These incidents continue to set precedents for larger escalations.
Both the CDU and the Greens agree that de-escalation efforts require a comprehensive multi-stakeholder approach. “There is no single instant solution,” said a member of the Bundestag's foreign affairs committee. “Every step must be carefully considered to avoid further provocation.”
In the long term, this situation could also accelerate the energy transition towards renewable resources, although the challenges are significant. However, on the other hand, the urgent need for energy might temporarily keep dependence on fossil fuels high.
The European Union, including Germany, is expected to play a more constructive role in mediating this conflict. With its unique diplomatic position, Europe can serve as a bridge for dialogue between Washington and Tehran, in order to safeguard global security and economic interests.
Ultimately, readiness to face scenarios of high oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty is imperative for policymakers worldwide. Without anticipatory measures, the economic and social consequences of a prolonged energy crisis could become a heavy burden for global society in the years to come, including throughout 2026.
